Canada’s housing market set for years of subdued price rises: Reuters poll

Canada’s once-roaring housing market has been tamed, according to the latest Reuters poll of analysts who predict house prices will rise nationally and in key urban hot spots they will not outstrip overall inflation over the next two years.

While a mild price correction has already taken place in Toronto, Canada’s largest city, and is underway in Vancouver, the latest survey of 20 analysts nationwide taken Feb 13-21 puts the chances of a national correction at just 20 percent.

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House prices are forecast to rise just 1.1 percent this year on an average basis, followed by 1.9 percent in 2020 and then 3 percent in 2021, based on a smaller sample of contributors willing to look that far into the future.

The outlook for Toronto is nearly identical at 1.3 percent, 2.0 percent and 3.5 percent, with Vancouver likely down 1.0 percent this year, then up 0.2 percent next year and 3.0 in 2021.

One of the main reasons for the change from years of price rises and speculative frenzy in some of Canada’s large cities is demand, not just supply concerns or the still-cheap cost of taking out a mortgage.