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The Canadian real estate industry expects sales to slow further than previously thought. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) economists have revised their annual forecasts. The good news is the summer was better than expected, leading to an improved outlook for 2018. The bad news is the ambitious 2019 forecast is looking less ambitious. CREA now expects that 2019 will look very similar to this year.
Forecasting Is Hard
Forecasting is a tricky task, and revisions are fairly normal for most organizations. Since a forecast is based on everything you know at the time, a forecast is subject to change as new details emerge. A year end forecast with three-quarters of the year in the bag is a little easier, since you’ll adjust your targets. That said, we did say the forecast in 2017 didn’t make much sense, since it ignored changes to credit capacity. Point is, don’t rag too hard on the fact that they were revised, it’s actually pretty normal.
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Canadian Real Estate Sales Forecasted To Drop 9% In 2018
Canadian real estate sales will drop in 2018, and expectations for 2019 have cooled. CREA is forecasting 462,900 sales across Canada by year end, down 9.8% from last year. In 2019 they expect sales to rise to 472,700, up 2.1% from the 2018 forecasted number. Both numbers are down significantly from last year, and well below the 10 year average for sales.
Ontario Real Estate Sales Forecasted To Fall Over 11% In 2018
Ontario real estate sales are expected to fall this year, but pick up slightly in 2019. CREA is forecasting 193,300 sales in 2018, a decline of 11.8% compared to last year. In 2019 that number is expected to rise to 203,600, up 5.3% from their 2018 forecast. The 2018 revision includes an upward revision, but the 2019 expectations are now lower. Both years are lower than 2017.