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Metro Vancouver’s current housing slump will last until 2021, but will be followed by dramatic doubling in single-family prices, predicts analyst
A real estate analyst who accurately predicted Metro Vancouver’s housing crash a year ago says the current slump will stretch out for three more years.
One year ago, Dane Eitel of Eitel Insights forecast that 2018 sales of detached houses in Metro Vancouver would collapse and the average detached house price would fall from the $1.8 million peak in May 2017 to $1.6 million by the third quarter of this year.
As of September, detached housing sales had indeed plunged 40.4 per cent from a year earlier and the benchmark price had hit $1.54 million, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. The average detached sale price was approximately $1.58 million.
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Eitel, who applies stock market-style analytics to the housing market, now forecasts that the detached house price in Metro Vancouver will sink in stages to a bottom of $1.4 million by Q3 2020 and trade at the level for another 18 months. The turnaround will begin in January 2022 – and it will be dramatic, he predicts.
“By the end of 2023 we will be back up to the 2017 peak pricing [$1.83 million]. But the breakout will be historic. Especially for those who purchase at or anywhere near the bottom,” Eitel told Western Investor.