A new analysis paints the picture of how housing market cycles come and go, and based on 20 years of data Metro Vancouver’s market is “primed for a comeback.”
Kevin Skipworth, the Chief Economist and Managing Broker of Dexter Realty, says recent sales figures indicate there is “renewed confidence” in the housing market, despite recent monthly sales trending below the 10-year average and other poor reports that paint a bleak picture.
“Sales in May were 44% above those in April, as such, it’s not a slumping market, but one with a gasp of breath,” he wrote.
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Based on historical data, there have been three significant slowdown periods in the regional housing market over the past 20 years — during 1997 to 1999, 2008 to 2009, and 2012 to 2013. These periods saw monthly home sales trend below 2,000 units.
“In each of these periods, there were either over or close to 20,000 listings on the market. In this current cycle we are seeing the market struggle to get over 15,000 active listings — at a time when the overall housing stock is at its highest. Demand is and will increase, and supply is clearly less than other significant slower markets.”