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Survey Says…How Has The Spring 2018 Market Performed Against Previous Years?

Survey says…How has the spring 2018 market performed against previous years?

By Emma Caplan

How has this spring’s market stacked up to previous years? Check out this comparison of May stats to find out.

METRIC

May 2016

May 2017

May 2018

Total residential property sales in the Greater Vancouver region
Increase/decrease from previous year

 

4,769

+17.6%

4,364

-8.5%

2,833

-35.1%

Percentage of sales above/below the 10-year May sales average

 

+35.3% +23.7% -19.3%
New listings – detached, attached and apartment properties for sale on MLS in Metro Vancouver
Increase/decrease from previous year

 

6,289

+11.5%

6,044

-3.9%

6,375

+5.5%

Total listings for sale on MLS in Metro Vancouver
Increase/decrease from previous year

 

7,726

-37.3%

8,168

+5.7%

11,292

+38.2%

Sales-to-active listings ratio (overall)*

Detached homes
Townhomes
Condos

61.7% 53.4%

31%
76.1%
94.6%

25.1%

14.7%
30.8%
41.7%

Prices and Sales

MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price (all residential properties, Metro Vancouver)
Increase/decrease from previous year

 

$889,100

+29.7%

$967,500

+8.8%

$1,094,000

+11.5%

Sales, detached properties
Increase/decrease from previous year

 

1,865

+8.2%

1,548

-17%

926

-40.2%

Benchmark price, detached properties
Increase/decrease from previous year

 

$1,513,800

+36.9%

$1,561,000

+3.1%

$1,608,000

+2.4%

Sales, apartment properties
Increase/decrease from previous year

 

2,150

+34.4%

2,025

-5.8%

1,431

-29.3%

Benchmark price, apartment properties
Increase/decrease from previous year

 

$485,000

+22.3%

$571,300

+17.8%

$701,700

+20.2%

Sales, attached properties
Increase/decrease from previous year

 

754

+2.9%

791

+4.9%

476

-39.8%

Benchmark price, attached properties
Increase/decrease from previous year

$632,400

+24.9%

$715,400

+13.1%

$859,500

+16%


*According to analysts, over continuous periods when the ratio falls below 12%, downward pressure on home prices generally occurs, and when it’s above 20% prices often go up.

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As the numbers show, overall sales were highest in 2016, which also had the highest increase from the 10-year May sales average. This year was close to 2016 in terms of the number of new units listed, but May 2018 total listings in Metro Vancouver far outpaced the previous two years. The sales-to-active-listings ratio has continuously stayed above 20%, as have prices, accordingly, though this year’s ratio is the closest to that threshold. Although the MLS benchmark price did not jump nearly as much as it did from May 2015 to 2016, we still saw increases each year. Finally, while the price of each home category has increased year-over-year (detached, apartment, and attached), the number of sales decreased across the board (except for a slight increase in attached property sales from 2016 to 2017).

So, we have cooled off – at least relative to an exceptionally hot May 2016. But with new government policy, among other factors, what the market will do next remains to be seen.

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