On where he sees the market right now: Looking forward to 2019, Richard is…
Brendan Lacerda’s predictions for the Vancouver Real Estate Market:
Regarding the previous run-up in prices, there was a perfect storm or confluence of events with strong global growth, the fall of the Canadian dollar, and extremely low interest rates to boost prices. Going forward, Brendan is looking at different fundamentals that will dictate where the market’s headed. There are almost two markets. The single-family and single-family attached, which will do fairly well with forecasted growth of 4-5% over the next two years. In the multi-family condo market, a huge amount of new supply is coming up. The number of completions as a ratio of population growth is very high. Recently, housing starts have pulled back, but dollar values continue to skyrocket, which suggests large investment in the luxury, high-end market. However, interest rates cool down demand so there will be a significant correction to the apartment and condo market. Qualitatively, Vancouver is a great place to live and values could be affected by this desire of many people.
Full Episode: Has the Vancouver Real Estate Bubble Burst? with Moody’s Economist Brendan LaCerda
Vancouver Real Estate News, Market Updates, Insider Tips, Stats, & Analysis
Brendan is an economist with Moody’s Analytics. He is the economic forecasting lead for its Canadian national and subnational service. This involves global model development and building. Having grown up in Boston, Brendan had to learn the Canadian economy pretty quickly when he started the job.
There is an advantage to not being from Canada, as Brendan is objective and agnostic in his approach. The forecasts do reflect cultural and political differences at times, but a lot of this is built into the structure of the economy. For instance, delinquencies in mortgages are still several times higher in the US than in Canada (though they have been decreasing).