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episode # 32

Talking Market Trends: The October Stats are in!

With the release of the October 2016 REBGV Stats, Adam and Matt breakdown each area and price band in Vancouver to determine what’s hot and what’s not.

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Episode Summary


 

Detached/single family market

East Vancouver

The East Van single family detached home market has been hot for a long time. There was a 1.3% drop in the one month change and a 0.7% drop in the three month change, meaning the market is basically flat.

The sales ratio for 2016 is 10% compared to 43% in 2015. This means 4 to 5 of every 10 homes are selling, making it a seller’s market.

For homes under $1.25M, the sales ratio is 40%. So definitely a seller’s market if you’re looking at anything under $1.25M. In 2015, this sales ratio was at 86% – the market was on fire. However, for homes between $1.5 and $1.7M, the sales ratio is 7%. Of 125 homes on the market in this price range, only seven have sold. East Van can’t sustain these higher price points.

So the 1.3% decrease in the one month change feels a bit misleading. It feels more like a 10-15% decrease in the detached market in East Van. It is definitely not a flat market.

 

West Side

The West Side is comparable to East Vancouver. There’s probably been a 10-15% drop from the height of the market. It’s down 1.5% in one month and 0.6% in the last three months, similar to the east side.

The sales ratio for 2016 is 14%, meaning 1.4 in every 10 houses is selling. Last year in October 2015, it was 29% – a much more active market. For houses under $2.75M, it is still a very active market this year with a 45% sales ratio. But for luxury homes above $2.75M, the sales ratio is 9%. Of 495 homes for sale in this price bracket, only 44 sold. We believe this is the foreign buyers’ tax and restrictions at work. It remains to be seen what the ripple effect will be on the rest of the market.

 

Condo market 

East Vancouver

The most active market is definitely condos in East Vancouver. In one month it has come up 3.6%. The sales ratio for October 2016 across the board is 44%. This isn’t much different from October 2015’s sales ratio of 55% – about half the condos listed are selling, making it a seller’s market. Condos up to $1M are a a 50% sales ratio. And condos between $400,000 and $500,000 are at a 60% sales ratio.

 

West Side

There’s been a marginal drop in condos on the west side. There was a 0.2% drop in one month and a 2.6% drop in the last three months. In October 2016, the sales ratio was 35%. This was similar to the sales ratio in October 2015 at 29%. So there has actually been more selling of west side condos in 2016, but at a decreased price. There is still an active seller’s market for condos under $1.5M.

 

Downtown

The stats show a slight decrease for downtown condo activity. The sales ratio in October 2016 was 31% compared to 56% in October 2015. This decrease in sales ratio and price point is surprising because the market still feels very competitive. It’s an active market and we’re still seeing multiple offers. Up to $1M, it’s still a seller’s market.

 

Overall

Overall, we’re seeing that entry level housing is still the most active in every market. This is general local buyers and end users, plus some investors too. In the entry level market, expect to see multiple offers and lots of competition.

As Dustin Woodhouse said, “When you jump from 125 degree water to 90 degree water, it will fee cooler. But remember that 90 degrees is still pretty hot.” Last year, the Vancouver market was red hot, aggressive and crazy busy. Comparing that to ths year, we’re still very active but the high end/luxury market is coming down. With lower sales ratios, we’d expect to see more flexibility in pricing.

However, it’s not the doom and gloom story you hear in the media. The sky isn’t falling and the market isn’t crashing. Stats such as 12 sold of 220 homes on the west side listed for over $5M seriously skew the numbers for the rest of the city.

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